|Title||Climate change and habitat fragmentation drive the occurrence of Borrelia burgdorferi, the agent of Lyme disease, at the northeastern limit of its distribution.|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2014|
|Authors||Simon JA, Marrotte RR, Desrosiers N, Fiset J, Gaitan J, Gonzalez A, Koffi JK, Lapointe FJ, Leighton PA, Lindsay LR, Logan T, Milord F, Ogden NH, Rogic A, Roy-Dufresne E, Suter D, Tessier N, Millien V|
|Keywords||Lyme disease; climate change; emergence; habitat fragmentation; range shift; white-footed mouse|
We combined climatic and landscape variables to model the current and future (2050) potential distribution of the black-legged tick and the white-footed mouse at the northeastern range limit of Lyme disease and estimated a risk index for B. burgdorferi from these distributions. We predict a further northern expansion of B. burgdorferi of approximately 250-500 km by 2050 - a rate of 3.5-11 km per year - and identify areas of rapid rise in the risk of occurrence of B. burgdorferi. Our results will improve understanding of the spread of Lyme disease and inform management strategies at the most northern limit of its distribution.